Attendance and school results: what 17,678 schools show

Q: Does absence cause lower exam results?

The analysis shows association, not proof of causation. Several factors can affect both attendance and attainment.

Q: What is persistent absence?

A pupil is persistently absent when they miss 10% or more of possible school sessions.

Q: Is the pattern still visible after allowing for disadvantage?

Yes. Within free-school-meal bands, the lower-absence half averaged 7.9 more primary RWM percentage points and 6.5 more secondary Attainment 8 points.

Published 18 August 2026 · Data from DfE, Ofsted and ISI

Answer: Schools with lower absence had substantially better 2024/25 attainment. The lowest-absence primary quartile averaged 68.7% meeting the combined RWM standard, versus 52.5% in the highest-absence quartile. At secondary, the equivalent Attainment 8 averages were 55.5 and 38.6.

Attendance is not a footnote to school performance. Across 17,678 mainstream schools with current attendance and attainment data, it is one of the clearest school-level relationships in the dataset.

16.2 pts

primary RWM gap, lowest to highest absence quartile

16.9 pts

secondary Attainment 8 gap

-0.6

secondary school-level correlation

Primary RWM attainment by school absence quartile

14,575 mainstream primary schools; unweighted school means.

Secondary Attainment 8 by school absence quartile

3,103 mainstream secondary schools; unweighted school means.

Is this just the disadvantage gap in disguise?

Partly, but not entirely. The highest-absence schools also served more pupils eligible for free school meals: 38.1% at primary, compared with 13.2% in the lowest-absence quartile. At secondary the figures were 37.5% and 20.1%.

To make a fairer descriptive comparison, we split schools into five FSM bands and compared the lower- and higher-absence halves inside each band. The lower-absence halves still averaged 7.9 more primary RWM percentage points and 6.5 more Attainment 8 points. That adjustment is deliberately simple and does not make the relationship causal, but it shows that intake disadvantage alone does not explain it.

Why should parents inspect attendance data?

A school’s absence rate captures more than whether individual families take holidays. It can reflect health, transport, school climate, unmet SEND needs, behaviour, anxiety and how quickly the school follows up. A high rate is a prompt for better questions, not a verdict.

Ask whether absence is concentrated in a year group or spread across the school.
Look at the direction of travel, not one annual snapshot.
Ask what support is offered before attendance becomes a formal enforcement issue.
Read absence beside FSM, SEND and cohort size so you do not penalise schools serving more complex communities.

Methodology. Open mainstream state-funded schools only. We matched full-year 2024/25 DfE overall absence with revised/final 2024/25 school-level attainment. Primary outcome: combined reading, writing and maths expected standard. Secondary outcome: Attainment 8. Quartiles contain equal numbers of schools and use unweighted school means. Values outside plausible ranges and records without matching year labels were excluded. Pearson correlation and within-FSM-band comparisons are descriptive; neither proves that attendance caused the attainment difference.

Frequently asked questions

Does absence cause lower exam results?

This analysis shows a strong association, not proof of causation. Health, disadvantage, SEND and family circumstances can affect both attendance and attainment.

What is persistent absence?

The DfE defines a pupil as persistently absent when they miss 10% or more of possible school sessions.

Is the pattern still visible after allowing for disadvantage?

Yes. Within five free-school-meal bands, lower-absence schools averaged 7.9 percentage points more pupils meeting the primary RWM standard and 6.5 more Attainment 8 points at secondary.